OKE

ONEOK is a scaled, fee-oriented midstream operator spanning NGLs, refined products and crude, plus natural gas gathering/processing and pipelines, which helps dampen direct commodity-price exposure versus upstream producers. Its asset footprint in key U.S. basins and downstream connectivity supports durable volumes and contract retention, while recent multi-year EBITDA growth suggests operating leverage and disciplined integration. The core debate for 2026 is less “demand” and more “capacity and execution,” as peers also expand infrastructure in liquids-rich corridors.

Financially, ONEOK exited 2025 with net income of about $3.46B and adjusted EBITDA of about $8.02B, and guided 2026 to net income of $3.19B–$3.71B and adjusted EBITDA of $7.9B–$8.3B, implying a steady-to-slightly-up earnings profile if volumes and tariffs hold. At ~$83.51, the stock trades around 13.8x trailing earnings (EPS ~5.44), which is not demanding for a cash-generative midstream, but limits upside if rates rise or guidance disappoints. The board lifted the quarterly dividend to $1.07 (annualized $4.28), keeping income support front-and-center.

Over the next 12 months, the thesis is that OKE can compound total return through a covered dividend plus modest earnings growth as projects ramp and integration/synergies flow into cash generation. Key catalysts are delivery against 2026 EBITDA guidance, continued dividend growth, and any positive re-rating if interest rates stabilize or fall. Primary risks are execution (project timing/costs), regulatory/permitting friction, and a macro-driven producer slowdown that softens throughput.

Recommendation: HOLD. The dividend and reasonable multiple provide downside support, but upside likely requires clean beats on 2026 guidance and a friendlier rates backdrop.