EQT

EQT is the largest U.S. natural gas producer with a scale-and-cost moat in the Marcellus/Utica, where rock quality, pad drilling, and owned/contracted midstream help protect margins through cycles. Management’s strategy is explicitly to be the lowest-cost producer, and the deep Appalachia inventory supports a long runway if gas demand (LNG, power, industrial) stays constructive. Recent midstream positioning around the Mountain Valley Pipeline (including added interests and the contemplated “MVP Boost” expansion) can improve realized pricing and flexibility versus peers that are more basis-exposed.

Financially, EQT exited 2025 with strong profitability and cash generation: net income attributable to EQT of about $2.04B, adjusted EBITDA of about $5.9B, and free cash flow attributable of about $2.5B, with 2025 operating cash flow around $5.1B. Net leverage has been trending down (net debt reported around $7.7B at FY2025 on some aggregators), with company commentary pointing to net debt falling below $6B by end of Q1 2026 and about $4.7B by year-end 2026 at strip. The dividend is modest ($0.66/share annualized; last ex-dividend Feb 17, 2026), so the equity story is primarily FCF and deleveraging, not yield.

Into the next 12 months, the base-case thesis rests on EQT translating “strip” pricing into cash: the company is projecting about $3.5B of 2026 free cash flow attributable (including roughly $600M of elected growth capex), which can further reduce debt and fund buybacks. Near-term catalysts are the Q1 2026 results (release after close April 21, 2026; call April 22) and any confirmation of debt/hedging plans that increase torque to higher gas prices. Key risks are gas price volatility, Appalachian basis/transport constraints if expansions slip, and execution risk on midstream projects and any incremental M&A.

Recommendation: BUY. EQT offers unusually high free-cash-flow potential for 2026 with a credible deleveraging path, and its midstream-linked strategy should help defend realizations and cost positioning through the cycle.